13 media executives make 2024 predictions

It is essentially the most fantastic time of the 12 months! It is the third annual nameless media and leisure govt predictions listing!

In honor of the 12 days of Christmas, I requested 12 previous and present executives on the world’s largest media and leisure firms for one industry-shaking prediction for 2024. After which I requested yet another as a result of that is the vacation season, and I used to be feeling beneficiant. A baker’s dozen! Really, I requested a number of extra, however some overlapped.

Fairly a number of of final 12 months’s predictions had been correct. Disney Chief Govt Bob Iger did prolong his contract. Christine McCarthy stepped down as Disney’s chief monetary officer. Paramount International hasn’t bought, however controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is now in talks to promote Nationwide Amusements. Google’s YouTube acquired the Nationwide Soccer League’s “Sunday Ticket” package deal.

Some weren’t pretty much as good. The media {industry} did not bounce again from recession in addition to one govt hoped. Netflix did not merge with one other firm. Apple did not ban TikTok from its app retailer.

Alas, hope springs everlasting with a brand new 12 months.

Govt 1: Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery

Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its 2022 merger, when Discovery mixed with WarnerMedia. That deadline is essential for Reverse Morris Belief tax causes. With out moving into the boring particulars, the essential half is Warner Bros. Discovery can do one other important deal two years after the shut of Discovery and WarnerMedia.

One govt focused NBCUniversal because the almost certainly acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. This govt predicted Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal in order that the brand new firm would commerce individually. However, Comcast (and Roberts) would preserve a controlling stake of the possession of the brand new entity.

A second govt instructed a extra expansive state of affairs. Comcast will preserve its theme parks enterprise however promote the remainder of the corporate in alternate for WBD frequent shares.  Comcast will get a premium for the rest of NBCUniversal in alternate for Roberts giving up his voting shares. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav runs the mixed firm, with NBCUniversal movie chief Donna Langley staying on to run an expanded studio.

Govt 2: Bob Iger will, once more, prolong his contract as Disney CEO

Earlier this 12 months, Disney CEO Bob Iger renewed his contract by means of 2026. Iger has stated he truly plans to stroll away from Disney endlessly when his contract is finished. Iger has prolonged his contract as CEO to keep away from retirement on 5 completely different events. In fact, when Iger left on the finish of 2021, he stated the identical factor.

This govt predicted “idiot me 5 instances, disgrace on me.” Disney has many strategic issues that do not have simple solutions, similar to determining how ESPN’s enterprise matches in a direct-to-consumer world and wind down its legacy TV cable networks. These issues demand a pacesetter with a gentle hand who understands the {industry}. Is there a greater chief of Disney than Bob Iger? The Disney board has determined, again and again, that there’s not. Why would this time be any completely different?

Govt 3: Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win their marketing campaign to affix the Disney board

One factor which will forestall Iger from extending his contract is that if Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo get board seats. Final week, activist investor Peltz and former Disney Chief Monetary Officer Rasulo criticized Disney’s failed succession planning as a part of an announcement asserting their intentions to run for Disney’s board of administrators when nominees are chosen subsequent 12 months.

“In our view, Disney’s board has failed to meet its important duties – overseeing the event of an efficient technique, planning for orderly succession, aligning govt pay with efficiency, and guaranteeing accountability for operational execution,” Peltz stated within the assertion.

This govt predicted Peltz and Rasulo will win their marketing campaign and each be a part of the board. A second particular person guessed solely Rasulo will get a spot — maybe by way of a settlement earlier than a vote.

Govt 4: Iger will title Dana Walden his successor as Disney CEO

If Iger does depart, he and the Disney board might want to title a successor. I reported in September that Iger plans to call a successor in early 2025 and provides that particular person about 20 months to arrange for the function. If that’s the case, an announcement might are available in late 2024. This govt predicted it is going to be Co-chairman of Disney Leisure Dana Walden who will get the nod. Iger will once more transfer to a boss function when Walden takes over as CEO, simply as he did with Bob Chapek in 2020.

A second particular person threw out a distinct title to key an eye fixed on: Andrew Wilson, the CEO of Digital Arts. This may occasionally appear out of left subject, however here is some inside baseball for you — the identical govt to say Wilson accurately predicted Iger would return as Disney CEO in 2022. Then final 12 months, the particular person stated Chris Licht would not final the 12 months as CNN’s CEO and McCarthy would depart as Disney’s CFO. Three for 3! So, perhaps listen.

Govt 5: Disney will purchase Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will place himself as a number one inside candidate to take over for Iger

One final Disney succession prediction! This particular person predicted Disney would purchase the privately held Candle Media to amass Moonbug Leisure, the proprietor of CoComelon. Disney would then try and promote the rest of Candle Media’s belongings at firesale costs, the chief predicted.

Candle Media is co-run by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This particular person’s guess is Mayer will return to Disney in a senior working function to place himself as Iger’s high successor candidate whereas Staggs would go away the corporate.

Govt 6: NBA rights will go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple

One of the carefully watched media tales of 2024 will probably be what the Nationwide Basketball Affiliation decides to do with its media rights. I reported in October that the NBA ideally needs three media companions with completely different packages of video games.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the incumbents. Each wish to preserve carriage relationships with the NBA, although each firms have additionally harassed they are going to be monetary disciplined. The league can also be searching for a strong streaming choice. That is the place Apple would slot in. (For what it is price, a second govt stated he did not suppose Apple would even make a bid for NBA rights and thought NBCUniversal’s Peacock would possibly find yourself with them.)

Govt 7: The Faculty Soccer Playoff will not get the rights charge enhance it needs as ESPN would be the solely important bidder

Apart from the NBA, the CFP often is the subsequent most essential rights deal to be renewed subsequent 12 months. The CFP’s present 12-year cope with ESPN expires after the 2025 playoff.

At the moment, the faculty soccer playoffs will increase from 4 groups to 12. Which will sound engaging as a brand new stay sports activities behemoth, however this govt guesses that potential bidders Amazon and Apple will balk on the worth CFP needs for the video games. ESPN is determined for stay rights because it prepares a direct-to-consumer service and can renew the package deal, this govt predicts.

Govt 8: Native broadcast stations take most native NBA, NHL and MLB sports activities rights away from regional sports activities networks

Sticking with the sports activities theme, the regional sports activities community enterprise could or will not be collapsing. Broadcast stations teams have been in talks with the NBA, NHL and MLB for a lot of the 12 months about choosing up native video games if sure RSNs fail.

Poaching groups from Diamond Sports activities Group, which filed for chapter earlier this 12 months and carries the video games of greater than 40 skilled sports activities groups, has been the first goal up to now for firms similar to EW Scripps and Grey Tv. Scripps now carries video games from the NHL’s Las Vegas Golden Knights and Arizona Coyotes. Grey reached a deal to broadcast the NBA’s Phoenix Suns earlier this 12 months.

The Wall Avenue Journal reported that Amazon in talks to put money into Diamond Sports activities Group to maintain the corporate afloat whereas probably utilizing Prime Video as a touchdown dwelling for streaming rights.

This govt stated he believes the published station teams will emerge as the first winner of rights as leagues will push for the expanded attain of broadcast TV whereas cable subscribers dwindle.

Govt 9: Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max, Netflix and Disney will provide the primary important streaming bundle

Media pundits on CNBC like to say that subscription streaming will ultimately be bundled in one thing that form of seems like (and is priced like) conventional cable TV.

However years into the streaming wars, this hasn’t occurred. Nobody has emerged because the dominant aggregator. No bundle of many providers exists. It is sophisticated to get media firms on board to conform to what one thing like that might appear like.

This govt stated 2024 would be the 12 months firms lastly get severe about bundling, predicting Disney would conform to bundle its trio of streaming providers (Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+) with Max and Netflix to supply a choice of streaming providers — at a reduction — that rivals cable TV.

A second govt famous that such a reduction will most likely must be championed by an anchor distributor. This govt’s guess is that it is going to be Amazon. He additionally predicted Paramount International‘s Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max will probably be part of the primary streaming bundle that Amazon affords.

Govt 10: RedBird Capital will purchase Paramount International and title Jeff Zucker CEO

Personal fairness agency RedBird Capital, based by Gerry Cardinale, has been stockpiling govt expertise, together with two former NBCUniversal heads in Jeff Zucker and Jeff Shell, who begins work on the personal fairness agency in early 2024.

This govt made the daring name that RedBird will not simply purchase Shari Redstone’s Nationwide Amusements however all of Paramount International, backed by a consortium of outdoor funding, together with cash from David Ellison and BDT Capital, the service provider financial institution run by Byron Trott that backed Redstone earlier this 12 months.

Zucker might then run Paramount International and do the soiled work of deciding what a part of the corporate he needs to run and what to promote. Nonetheless, this govt stated Zucker would preserve many of the belongings and try and show the corporate was undervalued as a publicly traded entity.

Govt 11: CNN will let go of certainly one of its high anchors because it redirects cash to digital

Irrespective of how nice CNN makes its programming, the cable information large most likely cannot defeat the larger secular forces of declining cable subscribers. That may imply much less cash coming within the door for brand spanking new CEO Mark Thompson, who plans on investing extra in digital.

This govt predicted CNN will not have the ability to up its digital spending with out chopping again on a declining linear TV enterprise — and that can imply letting go of a minimum of certainly one of its big-name anchors to avoid wasting money.

The transfer will usher in a brand new period at CNN, the place star anchors are not the main focus of the corporate.

Govt 12: Linda Yaccarino will not final the 12 months as CEO of X

Former NBCUniversal promoting chief Linda Yaccarino joined X as its new CEO in 2023, however the match on the firm appears to make much less and fewer sense by the day as advertisers flee.

Yaccarino suffered by means of a clumsy interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin earlier this 12 months when Boorstin requested her if she was a CEO “in title solely” and was solely on the firm to do proprietor Elon Musk’s bidding.

This govt predicted Yaccarino would both lose endurance or discover her job more and more pointless and depart the corporate in 2024.

Govt 13: No film will high $1 billion on the field workplace all 12 months

For the primary time in additional than 15 years, not counting 2020’s pandemic shutdown, no film will high $1 billion on the field workplace, this govt predicted. (This 12 months, “Barbie” and “The Tremendous Mario Bros. Film” every simply cleared $1 billion, whereas “Oppenheimer” got here in simply shy at round $950 million.) Common’s “Despicable Me 4” has one of the best likelihood, this particular person stated. However predicting solely “Despicable Me 4” would high $1 billion is not as daring, and also you solely stay as soon as … anonymously.

Glad holidays!

Disclosure: Comcast is the mother or father firm of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC.

WATCH: It is very onerous to see any strategic consumers of Paramount International, says LightShed’s Greenfield