The Means of Water wants robust second week at field workplace

All eyes are on “Avatar: The Means of Water’s” second week on the field workplace.

James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the highest-grossing movie of all time fell in need of preliminary box-office expectations throughout its debut final week. The movie snared $134 million domestically, in need of the $175 million that trade analysts had predicted, and slightly below the $135 million to $150 million vary that Disney had forecast.

Whereas “The Means of Water” tied with Warner Bros.’ “The Batman” for the fifth-highest opening of the yr and almost doubled the opening weekend of its predecessor, the softer-than-expected opening has left many box-office analysts questioning whether or not the movie will have the ability to meet Cameron’s lofty purpose of $2 billion on the international field workplace.

As of Thursday, the movie had tallied greater than $600 million worldwide, a little bit greater than one-fourth of the best way to Cameron’s goal for profitability.

The film’s second week will assist make clear its longer-term box-office prospects. Showbiz analysts usually look to the second week drop as an indicator of whether or not a movie may have longevity on the field workplace or might fizzle shortly.

For many movies, a 50% to 70% drop is the norm. Main tentpole options from Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe usually see box-office ticket gross sales fall on this vary after reaching sky-high opening weekend numbers. Whereas these sorts of movies can proceed on towards billion-dollar or larger theatrical runs, this metric can point out whether or not word-of-mouth is bringing new audiences to theaters or whether or not curiosity is waning.

A key instance is Paramount and Skydance’s “High Gun: Maverick” which noticed ticket gross sales decline simply 29% in its second week in theaters. The movie has generated greater than $1.4 billion on the international field workplace, and performed in theaters for greater than 200 days earlier than being made accessible on Paramount+.

“I believe ‘Avatar 2’ will proceed to slay all day by the yr and into the subsequent,” stated Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations. “The drop can be sizable, positive, however not like a conventional Marvel drop as Cameron’s movie is absolutely the one sport on the town for households for weeks, if not months.”

The subsequent main blockbuster — Disney and Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” — does not hit theaters till Feb. 17, leaving “The Means of Water” an extended stretch on the field workplace with out hefty competitors.

To not point out, the times between Christmas and New 12 months’s eves can account for as a lot as 5% of the yr’s whole box-office receipts, in accordance with information from Comscore. Previous to the Covid pandemic, that week averaged between $400 million and $600 million in ticket gross sales.

In fact, within the wake of the pandemic, the field workplace has been trailing 2019 ranges by round 35%. And not using a slew of typical vacation releases, the ultimate stretch of the yr might be considerably decrease than earlier years.

Compounding that is combined word-of-mouth about “The Means of Water.” Whereas critics have lauded Cameron’s visuals, saying that the film must be seen on the most important display potential, a big portion have additionally expressed disappointment in Cameron’s script and its greater than three-hour run time. Nonetheless, the film obtained excessive marks in viewers surveys, together with an “A” from CinemaScore and a 93% “recent” viewers ranking on Rotten Tomatoes.

Nonetheless, few within the trade are betting in opposition to Cameron. The filmmaker has a historical past of long-running hits on the field workplace, together with the unique “Avatar” (2009) and “Titanic” (1997).

“This second weekend has lengthy been destined for deflated numbers as a result of Christmas Eve, however that is why it is so important to view the movie’s run primarily based on the energy of weekdays and weekends mixed over the lengthy vacation hall,” stated Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “There have been a variety of pre-determined headlines about this sequel for years, however let’s wait and reserve judgment primarily based on what the worldwide numbers inform us over the subsequent couple of weeks.”

Aiding the movie’s field workplace has been a major push for 3D and premium format tickets, that are dearer than conventional seats. The common ticket for “The Means of Water” is projected to be round $14.76 this weekend, in accordance with information from EntTelligence. In the meantime, Common’s “Puss in Boots: The Final Want,” Sony’s “I Wanna Dance with Any person” and Paramount’s “Babylon” are anticipated to generate round $11 per ticket.

“James Cameron is not any stranger to the significance of the lengthy sport in relation to field workplace,” stated Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “His movies [have previously relied] closely on the forex of viewers pleasure constructing over time slightly than a gap weekend pop.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the guardian firm of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Puss in Boots: The Final Want.” Rotten Tomatoes is owned by Fandango, a subsidiary of Comcast.